Week 6 Walkthrough: Zay Flowers, Adrenaline Junkie

Pat Kerrane

11 Oct 2024

Welcome to the Week 6 Walkthrough.

In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the sixth glorious football Sunday.

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Points, ESPN, and NFL Next Gen).

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Jaguars at Bears, 9:30 AM, London

Jaguars Implied Team Total: 21.25

Trevor Lawrence is coming off a great game against the Colts, producing elite efficiency for the first time this year.

There's also some hope that the Jaguars have realized they need to lean on Lawrence more. For the first time all season, they went pass-heavy on 1st down.

On the other hand, Lawrence's passing profile is pretty boom/bust. It's hard to deliver tons of consistency when you’re constantly attacking downfield – as Lawrence has this season.

Despite Lawrence's Week 5 spike, his overall season looks pretty mediocre.

But that seeming mediocrity is misleading. Why? It’s an average of five games that include zero mediocre performances—only true highs or utter rubbish.

But if last week’s matchup foreshadowed a potential blowup game, this week’s looks far less promising.

While the Jaguars have been good at preventing pressure this season, the pressure they have allowed has gotten home quickly. And Lawrence has been brutal against quick pressure so far.

Meanwhile, the Bears are getting pressure consistently and quickly.

The Bears have been vulnerable to the deep-middle of the field, which could help generate some big plays – even if Lawrence struggles to really get going.

That creates potential for Brian Thomas to deliver another strong game.

Thomas looks like a co-WR1 with Christian Kirk in terms of target share, but it’s very clear who the bigger playmaker is.

With Evan Engram potentially returning and creating a target squeeze, Kirk’s outlook is more perilous than Thomas’. Kirk will be competing for the same underneath looks as Engram, while Thomas continues to operate as the primary outside option.

That’s not to say that Thomas is a sure thing—but it’s hard to bet against a WR who’s increasingly establishing himself as his team’s clear #1.

At tight end, Evan Engram should provide a slight boost to the offense, if he returns. But it’s worth noting that Brenton Strange was up to 82% route participation last week, and he’s a solid fill-in option if Engram (hamstring) can’t go.

In the backfield, Travis Etienne is dealing with a shoulder injury. He’s also dealing with the distinct possibility that Tank Bigsby is just a better runner. Bigsby has been tremendous with his limited opportunities this year.

Meanwhile, although Etienne has been decently explosive, his consistency has been an issue.

Etienne adds a lot more as a receiver and will likely still operate as the lead back here. But this could become more of a 1A/1B situation. Frankly, if Bigsby keeps running like this, it needs to.

Both backs should see opportunities, as the Bears are starting to look like a bit of a run funnel.

That’s understandable, since Chicago is much more vulnerable on the ground than through the air.

Etienne’s health will be crucial to monitor heading into the game, but he’s still the incumbent—and should get a chance to defend his workload.

Bears Implied Team Total: 23.25

Caleb Williams’ EPA per play has improved in every game this season, peaking with a 91st percentile showing against the Panthers.

But Williams’ success rate wasn’t great last week, which keeps his outing from jumping out as a truly elite performance.

Williams’ season-long efficiency doesn’t look good yet, either… he’s actually still in the negative in EPA. But he's firmly among a pack of underperforming veteran QBs – a group it’s generally safe to expect improvement from going forward. And it seems even more likely that the steadily-improving rookie keeps improving his season long average.

Last week gave us our first indication of how the Bears plan to operate when in full command of a game. Chicago’s Week 5 win was their third of the season, but the 36-10 victory was their first by more than one score.

The Bears stayed balanced, despite a license to really lean into the run—which is good news for Williams and his pass catchers.

If I’m being honest, I think Shane Waldron is a bit of a wanker; I don’t think we can count on him to press the Bears’ passing advantage if Williams emerges as a true star this year. But he does seem willing to keep things balanced in positive game script. And given how good the Bears defense is, that’s a good omen.

Although Williams is unlikely to have a ton of passing volume this year, his profile continues to look like one that can hit – even on moderate volume – as he’s regularly attacking deep.

Williams now gets a jolly good matchup against a Jaguars defense that isn’t getting pressure, while also allowing 15+ yard passes at the fourth-highest rate.

While I don’t expect Waldron to air it out, there’s also hope for a pass-first game plan against this soft defense – and the Jaguars are shaping up as a pass funnel.

The difficultly is predicting where targets will go. Although DJ Moore scored two TDs last week, his overall profile remains uninspiring. He’s certainly the best option in the Bears receiving game, but doesn’t stand out from the pack as a yardage producer.

Since I detailed Caleb Williams’ struggles with moving off the primary play design, he’s improved in that area—as part of a significant overall improvement. But while Williams is progressing past his first-read more efficiently… he’s still not executing better before moving on—meaning continued weak first-read target rates for all three of his top WRs.

Oftentimes, the remedy here is a soft matchup – which we get again this week. It’s a keep-the-faith week with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. And if the offensive play design gets itself sorted, Moore also has a sky-high ceiling.

Cole Kmet’s route participation has improved every week this season, peaking at 80% last week. And now that we can count on his playing time, his profile looks very solid.

In the backfield, D’Andre Swift looks to have settled into a 2/1 split with Roschon Johnson. Swift’s profile looks extremely weak…

But Johnson’s isn’t a whole lot better.

We can expect the status quo – meaning Swift – to hold this week. But he now gets a Jaguars defense that is much better against the run than the pass. He’s in the RB2 mix.

Commanders at Ravens, 1 PM

Commanders Implied Team Total: 22.5

Jayden Daniels had a difficult test against the Browns last week. And the rookie turned in just an 8th percentile success rate.

But… with the help of a 34-yard run and a 41-yard TD pass to Dyami Brown, Daniels was still solidly efficient.

Ultimately, it’s not the type of efficiency profile we regularly want to see from Daniels – and it certainly looks boom/bust. But within the context of a difficult matchup, it also looks like a pretty great outcome. Sure, Daniels struggled with inconsistency in a tough spot – but he still turned in an efficient outing.

It’s the type of making the best of a bad situation performance we’d expect from one of the best QBs in the league – which is exactly what Daniels looks like through five games.

Daniels now gets a Ravens defense that has been quite vulnerable to the pass. They’re especially susceptible to explosive plays.

Daniels isn’t actually attacking deep all that often. His typical dropback results in a short, quick pass. But that attack is working—alongside a rushing attack that he’s also a huge part of. That consistency is allowing Washington to pick their spots with deep passes. And those passes are adding significant value. Daniels ranks QB8 in EPA per play on deep throws. He’s not an especially frequent deep passer, but when he throws it long, he’s effective.

The downfield passing attack will feature Terry McLaurin, but Baltimore surely understands this reality. McLaurin hasn’t actually seen a ton of double-coverage this year, but that’s unlikely to continue against a Ravens team that doubles at a very high rate. Just last week, the Ravens doubled Ja’Marr Chase on 43% of his routes.

Of course, Chase still drew 12 targets and proceeded to shred the Ravens secondary for 10/193/2 – despite the defensive attention. So, sure, the Ravens will try and shut down McLaurin… but that doesn’t mean they’ll succeed. Either way, this matchup isn’t a clear-cut boost for McLaurin – who’s also a far cry from Ja’Marr Chase.

Zach Ertz looks set to operate as the Commanders secondary target. Say it with me — he’s running a ton of routes.

The good news for both pass catchers is that the Commanders will likely increase their passing volume this week. Against the Browns, Washington played pretty conservatively—which is understandable with a rookie QB facing an elite pass rush.

This week they face a much weaker Ravens pass defense and a much stronger Ravens run defense.

The Ravens defensive strengths have not gone unnoticed. Teams are attacking them through the air.

I don’t expect the Commanders to shift off their typical plan of attack, though. Instead, I think we could see some would-be rushing attempts converted to additional short passes. This could ultimately be good for the RBs – specifically for Austin Ekeler, who has been impressive in limited action.

Brian Robinson will carry the rushing load, and face the brunt of the Ravens strong run defense. But Robinson isn’t a zero in the passing game and should add at least some value as a receiver. He’s a solid RB2.

Ravens Implied Team Total: 29

To begin the season, Zay Flowers had first-read target rates of 8%, 14%, 6% and 0%—not what we’re looking for from a No. 1 WR. That type of player should be in the 20% range. We finally saw that against the Bengals, with Zay Flowers turning in a 20% first-read target rate – along with a 29% target share – posting a 7/111/0 line on 11 targets.

Flowers’ profile still looks weaker than we’d hoped from a season-long perspective. But he’s getting open, and last week demonstrated that he’s a weapon the offense can still potentially run through.

Flowers is set up nicely this week to keep things rolling. For one thing, the Commanders are likely to push the Ravens, just as the Bengals did. For another, the Commanders secondary is both vulnerable and doesn’t double-team much – meaning Flowers should see a fair amount of single man coverage. The Commanders are ninth in man coverage rate, and against single man coverage, Flowers is averaging 3.48 YPRR – with a 36% TPRR. Last week, I declared that Flowers' second-year breakout was on life support. This matchup looks like a shot of adrenaline to the heart.

It helps to have Lamar Jackson as your QB. Jackson is playing elite football.

As I noted last week, we really want the Ravens to be pushed. They got ultra conservative against the Cowboys and Bills. But in their three close games, they’ve been willing to drop back. The passing outlook is more fragile than it feels like it should be. But the Ravens aren’t afraid to play to win.

At tight end, the Ravens are trolling us.

Charlie Kolar – who Mark Andrews hopes to be when he grows up – went 3/64/1 on four targets. How many routes do you think he ran?

Keep in mind that Lamar Jackson dropped back 47 times.

How many routes did Kolar run?

…

6, the answer is SIX.

Kolar saw four targets – 100% of which were first-reads – on just six routes. The Ravens are doing a bit. Honestly, it’s a pretty good bit. But I still wish they’d stop doing it.

The Kolar usage was another nail in the coffin for Mark Andrews, who again saw less than 50% route participation (47%) for the third straight week. But, more pertinently, it’s frustrating for Isaiah Likely owners. Likely scored twice last week, which was awesome, but he had just an 8% target share. The lack of a consolidated TE role is limiting his fantasy value.

Still, Likely is the best bet for TE routes here, and this is a good matchup for him.

On the ground, we can count on a heavy dose of Derrick Henry, even in a back and forth game. The Commanders are vulnerable against the run.

Derrick Henry is ripping off TDs on the first play of the game; he’s closing out overtime wins. The dude is still the dude.

Cardinals at Packers, 1 PM

Cardinals Implied Team Total: 21.25

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