Week 7 Walkthrough: The Thrill of the Chase
Welcome to the Week 7 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the seventh glorious football Sunday.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Points, ESPN, and NFL Next Gen).
Subscribers can view the PROE data in a google sheet at the bottom of the post.
Quick Links
- Patriots at Jaguars, 9:30 AM, London
- Bengals at Browns, 1 PM
- Seahawks at Falcons, 1 PM
- Lions at Vikings, 1 PM
- Texans at Packers, 1 PM
- Titans at Bills, 1 PM
- Eagles at Giants, 1 PM
- Dolphins at Colts, 1 PM
- Raiders at Rams, 4:05 PM
- Panthers at Commanders, 4:05 PM
- Chiefs at 49ers, 4:25 PM
Patriots at Jaguars, 9:30 AM, London
Patriots Implied Team Total: 18
Drake Maye popped up on the injury report with a knee on Wednesday, reportedly underwent an MRI, and caused at least one fantasy football writer to collapse inward with enough intensity to produce a minor cavity in spacetime.
But ESPN's Mike Reiss reported on Thursday that OC Alex Van Pelt is not concerned, and that Maye looked good as a full participant in Wednesday’s practice.
Keep an eye on reports later this week, but for now let’s proceed as if Maye is good to go.
Drake Maye’s starting debut against the Texans delivered both highs and lows. But from a 30,000-foot standpoint, Maye’s efficiency wasn’t really much different than Jacoby Brissett’s — both have turned in poor marks.
There were a couple of notable positives for Maye, though. First, the rookie was immediately able to match the veteran Brissett. There’s always a pretty low floor with rookies in their first few games, and it was immediately evident this won’t be a disastrous downgrade.
Second, it’s important to consider how Maye was delivering inefficiency. Per Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points, Maye’s strip-sack fumble was the most impactful play of the game, costing the Patriots 5.5 EPA. But his 40-yard TD pass to Kayshon Boutte was the second-most impactful play of the game, adding a nearly identical 5.4 EPA.
With Brissett, we were largely dealing with a tedious, grinding style of inefficiency – which was brutal to watch. With Maye, things are different – some low lows, some high highs, but to quote Kevin:
"What’s most encouraging about Maye’s performance was his ability to offset huge mistakes with positive plays through the air and on the ground. He wasn’t out there trying to thread the needle to victory with a low-risk, low-ceiling attack."
This is encouraging from a real life perspective. If Maye can clean up his mistakes, there’s unmistakable upside. But it’s even more encouraging from a fantasy perspective – where a lost fumble is a small fraction of the downside we incur for the huge dividend of a 40-yard TD pass. Even if Maye doesn’t clean up his negatives, we should see more usable production.
Still, not everything about last week was exciting. Most concerningly, Alex Van Pelt does not look like he’s setting up Maye for success. Despite a completely lifeless rushing attack, Van Pelt was very run-heavy on 1st down.
This approach is going to stall out drives and put Maye in position for big negative plays. Put simply, it’s bad play calling.
The good news is that the Patriots can’t stop anyone on defense, which should lead to solid pass volume overall.
As expected, the Patriots struggled badly to protect Maye—allowing a 43% pressure rate against a strong Texans pass rush. Maye also showed a concerning tendency to take sacks when pressured. But he was an effective scrambler and showed a willingness to attack the splash zone – 10+ yards and over the middle – despite a low deep-pass percentage.
This week, Maye gets a Jaguars defense that is absolutely putrid. They don’t get pressure; they don’t blitz; they don’t cover well; they don’t double team; they don’t stop explosives; they don’t protect the splash zone. As Caleb Williams demonstrated last week, it’s an ideal setup to showcase a rookie passer.
The Jaguars are also shaping up as a pass funnel. This might not mean much to the Patriots, who showed last week they clearly want to limit Maye’s dropbacks. But to the extent that they’re willing to put more faith in Maye in his second start, we should see things open up.
If Maye takes advantage of this matchup, Demario Douglas is the safest bet for production. Playing out of the slot, Douglas doesn’t run a full complement of routes, but he can draw targets – which has been a struggle for Ja’Lynn Polk.
Polk also saw his route participation drop from 97% in Week 5 to just 69% last week. This coincided with route participation increases for Kayshon Boutte – who jumped from 59% to 76% – and for Kendrick Bourne, who jumped from 27% to 52%. With Polk’s playing time up in the air, he’s tough to trust. Honestly, Boutte looks sneaky interesting in single-game contests.
Hunter Henry’s role still looks locked in. He’s one of the clearest beneficiaries of the QB switch.
The Jaguars are brutal against the pass, but they aren’t terrible against the run. And if the Patriots play things like last week, slamming Antonio Gibson into the line for one yard on 1st down, that will negatively affect the entire offense.
But Gibson hasn’t been bad, when looking at the season-long sample. He’s in the RB2 mix if Stevenson misses.
Stevenson hasn’t been a good receiver this year, but he’s handled a big rushing workload impressively, and shapes up as an RB2 if he returns.
Jaguars Implied Team Total: 23.5
After a rough three-game stretch, Trevor Lawrence has been much better over his last two games. Not good enough to prevent Doug Pederson from having the worst work trip ever, but better.
Overall, Lawrence looks like a middling QB this season, but his mediocrity is a result of volatile swings in efficiency—a product of his boom/bust style.
Lawrence now gets a Patriots defense that’s been nearly as bad as what he faces in a typical Jaguars practice.
The Jaguars have been frustratingly conservative on 1st down this year – hampering their franchise QB – which could lower his upside this week. They did get aggressive against the Colts two weeks ago, however.
The Jaguars have been willing to pass, overall.
Brian Thomas is coming off a down game against the Bears, but his 2024 profile isn’t just impressive for a rookie—he looks like a true No. 1 WR.
With an impressive 10/102/0 receiving line on 10 targets in his return to action, Evan Engram is making the case that he’s the clear No. 2. While this matchup should allow Lawrence to attack downfield more – potentially lessening Engram’s importance in the offense – he’s still a TE1.
Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis both profile as solid contributors, but both also face a target squeeze from Thomas’ emergence and Engram’s return.
With Travis Etienne injuring his hamstring against the Bears, D’Ernest Johnson played 56% of snaps, with Tank Bigsby at just 27%. Per Ben Gretch, this wasn’t just garbage-time usage for Johnson.
"Early in the game, Johnson was on the field for the first green zone rep from the 9-yard line, before a false start backed them up, and then he stayed on and got a carry from the 14. Bigsby did come on for a 3rd-and-goal obvious pass down right after that, which was interesting, but his overall routes were so limited that feels like it was just rotational, or they wanted to go to Etienne and he wasn’t ready (he had played in that sequence). Bigsby also later fumbled a kickoff, which isn’t a great way to endear yourself to the coaches."
Like Ben, I’m assuming that Bigsby will get more work with Etienne out entirely this week. But it’s very possible Johnson leads in snap share again.
The good news is that Bigsby has been a very efficient runner this season.
And he’ll be going against a mediocre Patriots defense. He’s a fill-in RB3.
Back to Quick Links
Bengals at Browns, 1 PM
Bengals Implied Team Total: 23.5
The Browns’ season is completely, utterly lost. But enough about 2025.
This year, despite the total disarray on offense, the Browns pass rush remains a legitimate bright spot. They are relentlessly pressuring the quarterback and have the fastest time-to-pressure (TTP) in the league.
The issue on defense is that the Browns aren’t covering well – surrendering big plays frequently, and ranking just 19th in EPA allowed per dropback.
The Bengals have been protecting Burrow well this season, which has helped sustain a very strong run of form over the past four weeks.
Despite his ugly Week 1, Burrow is having an elite season.
And the Bengals have been very willing to lean into Burrow’s success. They are the only team in the NFL that is legitimately dictating the pass—throwing from a position of strength.
This has been a consistent feature of their offense this year.
All of this makes it less likely that the Bengals will follow Browns opponents’ typical path, which is to run the ball in order to avoid Cleveland's daunting pass rush. The Browns are a clear run funnel.
Burrow is playing well enough to where the Bengals may stick with their usual approach, attacking with the strength of their offense rather than hitting the Browns where they are weakest.
If so, they will likely be looking to get the ball out quickly. Burrow has a fairly quick 2.74 seconds TTT this year – but we could see the ball out even quicker this week. Given his elite success rate and proficiency as an intermediate and short passer, Burrow should be quite comfortable with that game plan.
The key question is who benefits most if the Bengals shift to a quicker passing attack.
This year, Tee Higgins leads the Bengals with a 36% TPRR on quick throws, with 2.89 YPRR. Ja’Marr Chase is at 23% with a 2.70 YPRR.
So this is a Higgins game, right?
Maybe not.
Last year, things looked very different.
On quick throws, Ja’Marr Chase led the way with a 30% TPRR and a 2.27 YPRR, with Tee Higgins at 20% and 1.64.
What would be the reason for this change? Well… see if you can spot a crucial difference in their 2023 vs. 2024 profiles.
Last season, teams tried to take Ja’Marr Chase way… but not nearly to the extent they are this season. Meanwhile, Tee Higgins’ double-coverage rate has fallen.
As you can also see, Chase’s 42% double-coverage rate – the highest in the NFL – is extremely high when compared to last year’s season-long numbers. This is not the type of rate that is likely to sustain, regardless of who they play.
Still, opponents' tendencies could help. And the Bengals now get a Browns team that isn’t doubling anyone this year.
The Browns have faced CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas, Brock Bowers, and Terry McLaurin. And yet, Jake Ferguson has the highest double-coverage rate when facing them, at just 29%. No WR has seen more than a 27% rate.
This year, teams have told the Bengals – beat us without Ja’Marr Chase. That hasn’t always worked, of course. The Ravens doubled Chase 43% of the time in Week 5, and he still went off for 10/193/2. But they made every effort to take him away.
This week, the Browns appear likely to bet on their pass rush again, and deal with the consequences if they don’t get home—even if those consequences involve frequent quick-passes to one of the best WRs in football.
The Bengals aren’t going to fear this matchup, and you shouldn’t either. Chase has a thrilling ceiling this week.
We could also see some value at TE here. Mike Gesicki is dealing with a hamstring injury, which should open up routes for Erick All. Even with Gesicki out, All is unlikely to be a true full-time player. But even 65% route participation for All would be pretty sweet.
All has flashed target-earning potential with a 24% TPRR. And the Bengals have been incorporating the tight ends on quick passes with Gesicki at 26% and All at 20%. So, he should be involved in this game plan when on the field. If Gesicki misses, All is a viable fill-in and an intriguing punt.
In the backfield, the snap shares flipped last week after Zack Moss was benched for fumbling. Moss still saw a 45% snap share, with Chase Brown hitting a season-high 62%.
Even if Moss retakes the lead role, his profile is very volume-dependent, and that volume is likely to be middling at best.
Chase Brown looks far more intriguing, even on limited work. I expect Moss to lead in snaps, but I’d rather play Brown.
The Browns are a run funnel for a reason—they’ve been inconsistent and inefficient against the run, despite a strong defensive line.
The problem is that the Bengals are a bad run-blocking team, and not a strong rushing offense overall. Still, Brown is in the low-end RB2 mix as a boom/bust play.
Browns Implied Team Total: 18
In 2002, Arthur Blank paid $545 million for a Falcons franchise that is now worth an estimated $6.1 billion.
20 years later, Jimmy Haslam paid $230 million for a steaming pile of dog shit.
If you need to reach Haslam, he’ll be in his office muttering about inflation.
It’s not just that Deshaun Watson has been bad—he’s been consistently, hopelessly bad. Week after week, the suck continues.
Mercifully, the Browns have moved away from the pass and begun hiding their franchise QB, at least to some extent.
And the Browns are even less likely to lean into the pass going forward, with Amari Cooper shipped off to Buffalo.
Their best hope here is that their defense can disrupt Joe Burrow enough to make him ineffective – or at least force the Bengals into a run-first game plan. That would allow them to attack primarily on the ground themselves, against a bad Bengals run defense.
That running game is very difficult to project, though. With Jerome Ford injuring his hamstring against the Eagles, D’Onta Foreman handled his typical 35% of snaps, with Pierre Strong handling 53%. There’s no reason to give Foreman more work.
In fact, there might be a reason to give Foreman and Strong less work. Nick Chubb could return for this game.
If healthy, Chubb is easily the best back available. But after a multi-ligament knee tear, Chubb’s health is a major question mark. And even if he ultimately returns to full strength this season, his workload in his first game is anyone’s guess.
There’s also the issue of overall rushing volume. Although the Browns have shifted away from the pass in recent weeks, they’ve still shown a willingness to pass from behind.
Don’t forget that this is a team still pretending that Deshaun Watson gives them their best chance to win.
Watson does at least get a Bengals defense that has not been impressive against the pass this year.
Browns receivers are only interesting as pure volume plays. But that volume is at least more condensed with Cooper out of the picture.
Jerry Jeudy should now operate as the clear No. 1 WR. Elijah Moore has been far more impressive as a route runner – but has no connection with Watson, and was down to just 53% route participation last week. Cooper is leaving a 19% first-read target rate behind, and Jeudy should pick up a lot of the slack there.
David Njoku is the only piece of the offense that looks even mildly interesting. After returning from injury in Week 5, Njoku logged just 54% route participation. He was up to 67% last week. Njoku was injured in Week 1, limiting him to 36% route participation. But he was 78% last year, so there’s still significant available head room – if he’s healthy enough to handle more.
And Njoku’s profile actually looks pretty strong from a per-route perspective. He’s a TE1.
