Week 8 Walkthrough: Tyreek Hill Flips a Switch

Pat Kerrane

25 Oct 2024

Welcome to the Week 8 Walkthrough.

In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the eighth glorious football Sunday.

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Points, ESPN, and NFL Next Gen).

Subscribers can view the PROE data in a sheet at the bottom of the post.

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Cardinals at Dolphins, 1 PM

Cardinals Implied Team Total: 21.5

Since turning in an elite performance against the Rams in Week 2, Kyler Murray had a long stretch of mediocre play. But he’s coming off a strong game against the Chargers.

However, that performance was largely driven by a 44-yard TD run—Murray passed for just 145 yards. Week 2 is the only time he’s topped 250 yards passing or thrown for more than one TD.

But rushing production matters – especially for fantasy. And as such, Murray profiles as a high-end QB this year.

Fundamentally, the Cardinals are a conservative team. They’re operating similarly to the Colts and Saints this year – running the ball even in situations where we’d expect a high pass rate.

For example, two weeks ago, they fought against a pass-heavy game script against the Packers.

The Cardinals now get a Dolphins defense that has been a major run funnel this season. But there’s a huge caveat to that. Opponents have felt extremely comfortable running the ball against the Dolphins, with Tyler Huntley unlikely to put up points against them. With Tua Tagovailoa expected to return this week, it will be difficult to justify a run-heavy approach. Still, we did see both the Jaguars and Bills roll out run-heavy attacks against Miami, in games that Tua started. So the conservative Cardinals will probably be tilted to the run, even if the Dolphins don’t prove to be a major run funnel.

Despite teams attacking them on the ground, the Dolphins have been solid against the run this year.

James Conner is coming off a season-high 84% snap share against the Chargers, delivering 15 RYOE with an elite 53% success rate. Conner is a safe bet to carry the load again here, and he hasn’t lost anything as a tackle-breaker – ranking RB2 with an outrageous 140 elusive rating. He’s a high-end RB2.

The Dolphins have been solid against the pass. They have quietly led the NFL in both pressure rate and time-to-pressure. But they are vulnerable in the secondary – allowing explosive plays and struggling to defend the splash zone.

Murray has handled pressure very well this year. His issue has actually been delivering from a clean pocket. This matchup lowers his floor—if the Dolphins consistently get quick pressure, the Cardinals could pivot to a run-heavy attack, limiting his volume. But this matchup also raises his ceiling—if the Dolphins push the Cardinals and Murray can withstand the Miami pass rush, he will have plenty of opportunities to produce downfield against a vulnerable secondary.

Trey McBride should be heavily involved, regardless. McBride is profiling as the Cardinals’ top receiving option overall, but he’s especially involved on quick throws—sporting a 29% TPRR. And if the Cardinals open up the passing game, that’s obviously great news for the Cardinals’ top target.

Marvin Harrison’s profile has taken a big hit after averaging just 1.7 receptions for 19 yards and zero TDs over the last three weeks.

Harrison is in a boom/bust role and now gets a boom/bust matchup. He’s not for the faint of heart, but he’s in the WR2 mix.

One of Harrison’s advantages is that outside of McBride, the target competition is pretty weak. Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch are both producing inefficiently on unimpressive target volume – unsurprising for two of the league’s worst route runners.

Dolphins Implied Team Total: 25

Last season, Tua Tagovailoa turned in strong efficiency in a healthy year.

This year, we’ve barely seen Tagovailoa, but he looks set to make his return to play after his Week 2 concussion. His 2024 sample isn’t very impressive, but even mediocre efficiency would be a big improvement over Tyler Huntley and company.

Tagovailoa’s return should also fundamentally shift the Dolphins approach on offense. With Huntley under center, they’ve been committed to the run — regardless of the game script.

Granted, the Dolphins were also run-heavy in Week 1, so it’s not like we should expect them to transform into a pass-heavy offense. But their game planning these last three weeks – hellbent on running at all costs – should be a thing of the past.

Less rushing volume isn’t necessarily a problem for this backfield—Miami used to be a team that won with rushing efficiency. And that rushing efficiency should be much improved by a functional passing game.

Miami’s RBs also get a matchup against an unimpressive Cardinals run defense.

In his return from a Week 6 concussion, De’Von Achane led the Dolphins backfield with 58% of snaps, to Raheem Mostert’s 33%. Achane ran 15 times for 77 yards, with Mostert at 11-for-50. Achane also caught 1-of-2 targets for eight yards.

It’s been a very disappointing rushing campaign for Achane, but he’s been impressive in the passing game. He should operate as the clear lead back again this week, and is an RB1.

The Dolphins will be laser-focused on protecting Tagovailoa this week. Fortunately, they get an extremely ineffective Cardinals pass rush — that’s paired with an extremely weak coverage unit. Most notably, they are terrible at defending the splash zone.

Even with backup QBs under center, the Dolphins have continued attacking the splash zone, utilizing both of their top WRs there.

Tyreek Hill’s efficiency is way, way down from last year—but he’s still seeing strong underlying target volume. And Hill now gets a matchup with a Cardinals defense that can’t defend the splash zone – where Hill has been absolutely lethal. While it’d be nice to have more confidence in Tua’s outlook, the upside for Hill in this matchup is stratospheric. He is an elite WR1.

Jaylen Waddle should also be in lineups. He’s a critical piece of a dynamic Dolphins passing attack, and should hit the ground running with Tua back under center.

It’s also worth noting that Jonnu Smith is coming off 78% route participation against the Colts, and has been pretty damn impressive on a per-route basis. He’s very much in play in Tua stacks.