Week 9 Walkthrough: A.J. Brown, Jaguar Cruisin'
Welcome to the Week 9 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the ninth glorious football Sunday.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Points, ESPN, and NFL Next Gen).
Subscribers can view the PROE data in a sheet at the bottom of the post.
Quick Links
- Jaguars at Eagles, 4:05 PM
- Cowboys at Falcons, 1 PM
- Dolphins at Bills, 1 PM
- Raiders at Bengals, 1 PM
- Chargers at Browns, 1 PM
- Patriots at Titans, 1 PM
- Commanders at Giants, 1 PM
- Saints at Panthers, 1 PM
- Broncos at Ravens, 1 PM
- Bears at Cardinals, 4:05 PM
- Lions at Packers, 4:25 PM
- Rams at Seahawks, 4:25 PM
Jaguars at Eagles, 4:05 PM
Jaguars Implied Team Total: 19
Over the last two weeks, the Jaguars have been very committed to the run, posting -15% PROEs on 1st down in both games.
The Jaguars were very run-heavy against the Patriots in London, operating from a positive game script. Then in last week’s 3-point loss, they fought against a pass-heavy script. They've now shifted to the run in two very different game scripts.
The trend line here is far from ideal if projecting passing volume for Trevor Lawrence moving forward. The good news, however, is that Lawrence has been playing very well over the last four weeks – rebounding nicely from a three-game slump early in the season season.
Lawrence’s efficiency is now roughly on par with pre-season expectations. He’s a very solid starter.
Lawrence will now have to operate without Christian Kirk, who was lost for the season to injury last week. Kirk was a big part of the Jags’ offense, though he didn’t stand out from an efficiency or target-earning perspective. Mostly, he served as a capable WR, a reliable part of the game plan.
Kirk’s loss would be a much bigger deal if the Jaguars lacked other capable options – but they have multiple players who look prepared to step up.
Brian Thomas is dealing with a chest injury, but is practicing this week and looks likely to play. He was already profiling as a No. 1 WR, and should now solidify his place in future game plans. Wheels up.
Gabe Davis has a long history of doing exactly what he’s done for the Jaguars so far. He runs deep routes and occasionally draws targets. I don’t expect that to change. He’s also dealing with a shoulder injury.
Instead, Evan Engram should step into a more target-dominant role. He’s a locked-in TE1.
With target volume a potential issue, we’re more dependent on passing efficiency than we used to be in Jacksonville. This matchup isn’t especially difficult, but doesn’t look like one that will boost efficiency either.
Ultimately, it’s a game where Thomas and Engram are appealing bets because of their high-end roles and efficiency. But it’s not a spot where I’m looking at ancillary pieces.
On the ground, the Eagles are also solid.
The big question this week is if Travis Etienne will return. But Etienne looks less like a returning starter and more like a spoiler.
Because... Tank Bigsby has been outrageously efficient.
With the Jaguars as 7.5-point underdogs, we’re probably going to see a fair amount of a passing-down back at some point. And that back won’t be Bigsby. So regardless of Etienne’s status, Bigsby looks TD-dependent. But in the run game, I don’t expect the Jaguars to immediately shift away from Bigsby, who is running so well that they’ve tailored their offense around it.
Etienne is a riskier play. You’re hoping he can reclaim a role he hasn't earned this year, or PPR scam his way to value – which is tricky when you’re only averaging 0.90 YPRR.
Eagles Implied Team Total: 26.5
Jalen Hurts had a slow start to the season. That tends to happen when your top WRs both go down. But over the last three weeks, Hurts has been excellent.
He now profiles as the very strong starter that he is.
Last week, Hurts boosted his value by rushing for three TDs… which certainly does a good job of adding EPA.
But Hurts’ passing profile has also been impressive. He’s been very accurate this season, and is efficiently attacking downfield.
Hurts now gets the passing matchup. No one is worse against the pass than the Jaguars.
The beauty of the Jaguars is that they also lead the NFL in man coverage. The question for the Eagles this week is how often their high-end WRs will be one-on-one in man coverage.
The answer… is probably very often.
Notably, neither A.J. Brown nor DeVonta Smith has been double-teamed at a high rate this year, despite Brown delivering absurd efficiency as a deep threat and Smtih being an extremely reliable intermediate threat.
What is going on here… do teams not understand how good these guys are?
Obviously, no. Both WRs are established studs. No defensive coordinator is playing catchup to that fact.
What defensive coordinators are struggling with is how to defend an Eagles team that is extremely threatening in the run game, and can also beat you over the top.
One solution is to bring a safety into the box. Per Fantasy Points, the Eagles have seen a single-high safety at the 11th-highest rate. This is a great look for them; Philadelphia has the eighth-highest fantasy points per dropback against single-high.
Odds are that the Jaguars are going to play a significant amount of single-high safety here — with a 50% coverage rate, it makes up literally half of what they do. The issue is… the Jaguars are terrible in single-high. The Jaguars are tied with the Rams for the highest rate of fantasy points per dropback in single-high coverage. Even the Panthers rank better.
This matchup puts the Jaguars in a serious bind. Do they focus on stopping the run, at the risk of getting beat downfield? If so, A.J. Brown is going to feast against the single-man coverage that the Jaguars are likely to offer.
Dating back to 2022, A.J. Brown has 5.37 YPRR against single-man coverage. Only Tyreek Hill (5.90) has been better.
There’s some risk that the Eagles don’t fully lean into this excellent passing matchup. But if they do… Brown’s ceiling is off the charts.
DeVonta Smith is also a very strong play. Although he lacks Brown’s ability to turn non-elite target volume into a massive fantasy outing, if the Jaguars push back in this game, Smith could easily go off.
With Dallas Goedert likely out again this week, we’ll see plenty of Grant Calcaterra at tight end. Calcaterra has posted route participation of 89%, 83%, and 86% over the last three weeks. The problem is that he’s not nearly the target earner that Goedert is. But he’ll be out there.
Ultimately, the Jaguars may decide that they simply cannot let the Eagles pass all over their vulnerable pass defense. But that still sets them up for a difficult day. While Jacksonville is decent against the run, they’re going against an elite rushing team.
And Jacksonville is likely to be worse against the run if they use their safeties to try and stop the pass. There’s only so many guys on the field.
There’s also the fact that the Eagles want to run the ball. If the Jaguars don’t offer up pass-friendly looks, we can count on heavy volume from an Eagles team that has been extremely committed to the run since their Week 5 bye.
This sets up very nicely for Saquon Barkley, who will get plenty of volume here. The main question is whether the Jaguars focus more on stopping Barkley and Hurts in the running game—or on Brown and Smith in the passing game. Barkley has shown all season that if defenders lose sight of him, he can rip off huge gains. Barkley is an elite RB1.
